Bioclimatic context of species' populations determines community stability

Aim It is important to understand the factors affecting community stability because ecosystem function increasingly at risk from biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate how a key factor, position of local environmental conditions within thermal range species, influences butterfly communities continental scale. Location Spain, UK and Finland. Time period 1999–2017. Major taxa studied Butterflies. Methods We tested following hypotheses about species responses temperature anomalies aggregate influence stability: Hypothesis 1, have contrasting opposing edges their range; hypothesis 2, with central positions higher stability; impacts on are driven by 3, population asynchrony, or 4, additive stability. Data were analysed 876 sites for 157 species. Results found some support there interactions between response such that different could provide weak compensatory dynamics. However, nonlinear, suggesting strong declines extreme anomalies, particularly hot edge. 2 was supported in part, increased declined edges, after accounting richness abundance. Thermal weakly correlated asynchrony (hypothesis 3) 4), although abundance had larger impacts. Main conclusions Future heat events will be likely impact negatively across range, but might impactful populations hottest end range. influenced edge stable. prediction challenging nonlinear temperature, small producing dynamics, large synchronizing